Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
